Brazil’s runoff puts fiscal policy choices in focus
ブラジル大統領選決選投票、財政運営の選択に注目経済・金融
- Country:
- 🇧🇷 Brazil
- Voice:
- 🇬🇧 Oliver
英語本文
Brazil is scheduled to hold its presidential runoff on October 25, 2026, with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva facing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. Economist and emerging-markets investment executive Alejo Czerwonko says either winner will need to restore fiscal credibility and stabilize public debt. In his assessment, debt exceeds 80 percent of GDP, annual fiscal deficits approach 9 percent of GDP, and double-digit interest rates increase debt-servicing costs.
Czerwonko predicts Lula would adjust the budget more gradually while seeking to preserve public investment and social spending. He expects Bolsonaro to favour faster consolidation through spending restraint, including mandatory expenditure. Such cuts could require politically costly decisions and legislative changes.
He argues credible policy could reduce the risk premium in interest rates, while failure could keep borrowing costs high and limit investment and growth. He also says constructive trade relations with both the United States and China serve Brazil regardless of the winner. Its agricultural commodities, energy, minerals and manufactured goods provide a basis for diversified trade.