South African tax windfall forecast precedes budget statement
南アフリカ予算方針発表を前に税収上振れの予測経済・金融
- Country:
- 🇿🇦 South Africa
- Voice:
- 🇺🇸 Katy
英語本文
South African finance minister Enoch Godongwana is scheduled to present his medium-term budget policy statement on 21 October 2026, as an economist forecasts stronger tax receipts. PSG Financial Services economist Johann Els estimates revenue will exceed February’s forecast by at least R50bn ($3.0bn or €2.7bn). He forecasts a consolidated deficit of around 3.5% of GDP in fiscal 2026/27, against February’s 4% projection.
Els identified stronger receipts from mining companies, personal income tax and value-added tax. He cautioned that higher commodity prices had contributed to the gain, which might prove temporary rather than signal stronger underlying economic activity. The IMF’s October forecast put South African economic growth at 1% in 2026.
Investec economist Annabel Bishop forecast little improvement in the deficit, with possible widening to 4.1% of GDP if spending remains above budget. Godongwana is expected to provide details of a proposed principles-based fiscal anchor intended to strengthen long-term budget discipline.