Brazil survey holds inflation forecast as growth outlook weakens
ブラジルの市場調査、インフレ予想は据え置き 成長見通しは下方修正経済・金融
- Country:
- 🇧🇷 Brazil
- Voice:
- 🇬🇧 Oliver
英語本文
Brazil’s central bank published its weekly Focus survey on October 19, with market economists leaving their 2026 year-end inflation forecast unchanged at 5.22%. They lowered their forecast for 2026 gross domestic product growth to 1.83%, from 1.85% in the October 13 survey. The figures are median expectations among respondents, rather than central-bank forecasts or policy decisions.
The inflation forecast stands 0.72 percentage points above the 4.5% upper boundary of Brazil’s target range, which centres on 3%. The permitted tolerance extends 1.5 percentage points on either side of the central inflation target. Four weeks earlier, economists had expected 4.92%. For 2027, they raised their inflation forecast from 4.30% to 4.32% and cut their GDP growth projection from 1.40% to 1.32%.
Separately, the IBGE statistics agency’s IPCA consumer-price measure rose 0.82% in September and 4.58% over 12 months. The Selic benchmark interest rate stood at 13.75% when the survey was published. Economists still expected it to reach 13.25% at the end of 2026 and 12.00% at the end of 2027, with both projections unchanged.