Sources foresee cautious RBI tightening to defend the rupee
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Two unnamed sources and analysts forecast on October 16 that the Reserve Bank of India would tighten monetary policy further to counter capital outflows and rupee speculation, proceeding more cautiously than during the 2013 currency crisis. The RBI raised rates in October for the first time in four years. Liquidity measures include bond sales and higher reserve requirements for banks and large currency hedges.
Sources said December’s policy review could discuss a half-percentage-point increase if inflation warrants it. HSBC and State Bank of India expected that increase. Rate decisions rest with a six-member panel, including three external appointees. Domestic bond yields have risen 45–60 basis points since early September.
Economic growth was 7.8% in April–June, while analysts expected weaker second-half growth. One source estimated that nearly 60% of loans use external benchmarks, transmitting rate increases quickly to borrowers. Faster tightening therefore presents a tradeoff between financial stability and economic growth.